Swedish study hints mesothelioma incidence might drop faster than expected

Swedish scientists have reported that the incidence of asbestos-related pleural mesothelioma seems to have plateaued in Sweden, however it is expected to peak sooner than expected elsewhere in Europe.

The Swedish Cancer Registry collected data on pleural mesothelioma between 1961 and 2000. In Sweden the use of asbestos rapidly diminished in 1976 but due to the long latency time, the maximum incidence of pleural mesothelioma did not occur until 1993. This, however is earlier than previously expected, the researchers note in the January 1 2003 issue of the International Journal of Cancer.

“The previous estimates have been called optimistic but this shows that they are rather pessimistic,” said Professor Kari Hemminki at the department of biosciences at Novum, Karolinska Institute.

The lag-time between exposure and mortality has been estimated at around 50 years and models have predicted that the incidence would not reach a maximum until between 2015 and 2030 in Western Europe.

It is expected that Sweden would be among the first to see numbers peak, since use of asbestos was reduced here much earlier than in other countries.

“This would be good news to other Western European countries,” the researchers write in their article. According to Dr. Hemminki, it can now be expected that the leveling off in Western Europe will happen between 2003 and 2013, assuming that exposure levels have been the same as in Sweden.

(Source: Reuters Health)